Month: February 2021

Silver Price Survey Results

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I have changed the name from Contest to Survey as I think that more accurately represents what this Contest/Survey is about. Whether it is a Contest or Survey, I would like to make it as statistically accurate and as non-bias as I know how. I ask everyone to please make your weekly Entry BEFORE looking at previous weeks results so as to not influence your entries. I think the more entries we get, the more accurate and interesting this Contest will be. Please SPREAD THE WORD!

I think the Results Table below is fairly self-explanatory. The dates under the Target Price are the average Target Date of the entries for the given week. The following column is the number of entries for the given Target Price.

Week End DateWeek #$35 Target Date# of  Entries
2/13/202114/30/202130
2/20/202124/13/202120
2/27/202137/3/202113
3/6/202147/7/20215
3/13/202158/10/20213
3/20/202168/12/20213
Overall Average —>5/19/202174
Week 6

Week 6: Not many entries again and the projected $35 target date has crept up a little. I am going to do some promo on Reddit this week and see if we can get some more interest in this survey.

Week End DateWeek #$35 Target Date# of  Entries
2/13/202114/30/202130
2/20/202124/13/202120
2/27/202137/3/202113
3/6/202147/7/20215
3/13/202158/10/20213
Overall Average —>5/16/202171
Week 5

Week 5: I did find an error in my calculations for Week 4 and have corrected that in this weeks results. I did not do any promoting this week on Reddit and only got 3 entries. I do appreciate the dedication on those entrants! I continue to think that this Survey will become much more popular and relevant once silver starts moving higher and/or hits $35/oz.

Week End DateWeek #$35 Target Date# of  Entries
2/13/202114/30/202130
2/20/202124/13/202120
2/27/202137/3/202113
3/6/202145/11/20215
Overall Average —>5/8/202168
Week 4

Week 4: The number of participants has fallen again and maybe I’m not “pushing” it enough and/or people are losing interest. I encourage all that are reading this to continue participating in the Survey. As I said last week- I am hoping that the survey comes close to predicting $35 and that should gain some momentum for the next target price.

Week End DateWeek #$35 Target Date# of  Entries
2/13/202114/30/202130
2/20/202124/13/202120
2/27/202137/3/202113
Week 3 Overall Average —>5/8/202163
Week 3

Week 3: The number of participants has fallen some each week. When I began this survey I was hoping to get 50+ entries per week, with the number increasing each week. That has not happened. I urge ALL who have entered to enter EACH week. There have only been a few that have entered more than once. We won’t know how well this “silver crowd wisdom” is working until silver does hit $35/oz and then how close we were in predicting. This week the Target Date prediction is further out than last week.

Week End DateWeek #$35 (USD) Target Date# of  Entries
2/13/202114/30/202130
2/20/202124/13/202120
Week 2 Overall Average –>4/23/202150
Week 2

Week 2: This week I have collected the entries for the $35 Target Price only. I have changed the name from Contest to Survey and collected entries directly from Reddit and Twitter. Of course you can also use the easy to use Entry Form. I wanted to make the Survey easier to participate in and understand. So, now you can just reply to one of my Silver Price Survey Reddit or Twitter posts with a date that you predict silver will hit $35. When $35 is hit then the Survey will work on predicting $50. Please make a note on your calendar to participate in this Survey weekly (Sun – Sat) and tell your friends and family about it. I think the more entries, the more accurate the date projections will be.

Week 1: This is the first week of this Contest and I am excited about the results. Hopefully, we will have more entries as time goes on, but I think this is a good start and I find the results interesting. You may be wondering about the disparity in the number of entries between the $35 and other 2 Target Prices. A couple of my posts about this Contest on Reddit were not clear and I had several people just reply to my post and they made guesses for the $35 target only. Where it was clear what they were guessing I did include their guesses in the Week 1 tally.

Silver Price Survey (SPS)

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RESULTS – Please make an ENTRY for the current week (Sun – Sat) BEFORE looking at previous SPS Results, so as not to influence you guesses.

Information

The purpose of the Silver Price Survey is to get some “silver crowd” wisdom to predict the Target Date when silver will close at or above a Target Price-  currently $35oz. (USD). Once the price exceeds $35 we will predict the Target Date for $50 then $100.   Mainly, I think this will be interesting, but I also think that the crowd wisdom may have some insight into the future price movements of silver.  Silver going above each of these Target Prices will be a big psychological boost.  You can make a new guess each week.  You will be predicting the Target Date when the spot price of silver closes at or above the Target Price at the 5pm EST close per Kitco.  

You have probably have read or heard of stories of ‘crowd wisdom”.  Here is a link to one that I found:

Ignoring the Wisdom of Crowds

The only reward at this point to the best guesses in this survey will be bragging rights.   The winners will be the top three who had the least number of trading days between their Target Date guess and the actual Target Date.   Whoever ends up with the fewest days for one of their guesses (either before or after the Target Date) will win first.  A tiebreaker will be whoever posted their entry on the earliest date.  I personally may enter Target Dates once per week, but I will not compete for the recognition. 

I think this will be fun and interesting.  I am thinking that I will post the average Target Dates calculated from the previous week’s entries towards the end of the following week.  I don’t want those posted Target Dates to influence people’s guesses, but I do want to put out that info in the interest of reflecting the current silver price sentiment.   Put a reminder on your calendar to place an entry each week!  Let me know what you think about this survey and if you have ideas on how to improve it.   Spread the word!

LATEST INFO & RESULTS

If you ask for a copy of your responses on the Entry Form to be sent to you, the Dates in the email are not formatted right. I have requested Google to look into this.

Please remember to enter weekly (Sun – Sat- midnight EST) as I think the more weeks and the more entries will mean the date predictions will be more accurate.

I have now changed the name of this from Contest to Survey The survey will also only have entries for one Target Price at a time- currently $35/oz. Whether it is a Contest or Survey, I would like to make it as statistically accurate and as non-bias as I know how. I ask everyone to please make your weekly Entry BEFORE looking at previous weeks results so as to not influence your entries. I think the more entries we get, the more accurate and interesting this Contest will be. Please SPREAD THE WORD!

Link to RESULTS.

Rules for the Silver Price Survey

  1. To participate in this survey complete the simple ENTRY FORM OR you can just reply to a Twitter or Reddit post about this Survey with your predicted date for silver to close at or above $35/oz.
  2. I will not in any way distribute or sell your email address or username.  I will not use your email address or username, except to notify you if you have one of the top 3 entries. If you are one of the top three entries for a Target Price, you will have the option of whether or not you want your email address or username posted on the website. 
  3. *Only the first entry of a Target Date you make each week (Sunday – Saturday) will be used in this survey.  Do not use multiple email addresses or usernames. 
  4. Your Target Date entries can be different each week based on your current best perdiction.   
  5. The date you are trying to predict will be the date that the spot silver price closes at or above the Target Price (USD) per ounce at the 5pm EST close per Kitco silver spot price.
  6. The winners will be determined after the Target Price is hit, even if the silver price should go back below the Target Price on subsequent closings. 
  7. *Your Target Date entry cannot be any further out or closer than the following limit for $35/oz. – up to 2 years out; OR less than 3 trading days from the entry date.
  8. Individual entries or names will not be made public.  The average Target Dates for each Target Price for all entries may be publicized.
  9. The top 3 winners will be determined by the number of daytime trading days (not counting weekends and holidays) between their guessed Target Date and the actual Target Date either before or after the actual Target Date.  If more than one entry has the same number of trading days from the Target Date then the tiebreaker will be which entry was entered on the earlier date. 
  10. Rules are subject to change and any changes will be announced and posted on TheSilverStory.com website.

*Reasons for Rule

3* I don’t want entrants making multiple entries that might skew the average. 

7* I don’t want entrants to skew the average by entering dates that are 10 or 20 years in the future. I think the minimum of at least 3 days out will make the survey more fair.  Any entry date beyond these limits will be entered with a Target Date of the stated date limit.   

Please send an email to me at [email protected] with any questions, comments or suggestions about this survey.